Voting by email is being divided in untraditional way by Trump

  • Sep 20,2020

Voting online nowadays is getting more and more popular particularly in the United States. And with the coronavirus pandemic this kind of voting gained even more popularity. In some recent polls made by CNN in Arizona, Florida and Michigan results are clearly speaking – almost 40% of the people who voted  in these states say they will vote by Email. A poll made a couple of month ago by Fox News said that 35% of the voters in all states would use their computers to vote.  When we go back in 2016 the percentage was almost the half of todays’ numbers – 24%.

President Donald Trump seems to be not very believing in these kind of voting because in the last few months tried to make a campaign doubting voting by email. Many of the charges are false including the most ridiculous one that there is massive fraud but all of them have been discredited. But with his attempts to neglect voting by email Trump clearly separated the two big groups in who is voting by email and who is not going to do it. Obviously  the Democrats are going to cast their votes by email a lot more than the republicans. And this can be saw even in CNN’s poll in Arizona , Florida and Michigan. In each State the percent of the self-identified Democrats who are going to cast their votes by email is over 50% . In every one of the States Democrats are 30 points ahead than the Republicans and more likely to vote by email.

Usually the difference in who is voting how between the two leading parties is not that big, so this is a huge exception. There are some interesting facts we discovered in CNN’s polls. Traditionally the ones who vote mostly by email are the older people. But in the recent polls results are saying that people under 45 are more usually to vote by email than those who are older than 45 in the states of Arizona, Michigan and Florida. The main reason why this numbers are changed and younger people vote by email is because they are most likely to be Democrats. And with all of the Trump’s fights about voting by email there will be no surprise if there are changes in the types of people who vote by email.

But as we now saying you are going to do something and actually doing that thing are two different things. There is a possibility that Democrats are saying that they will vote by email just because they want to disagree with Donald Trump. And the other side that republicans may say they won’t use the email voting just to register approval of him. Some other thing Patrick Murray and Edison Research's Joe Lenski have noted is that maybe there are no such big difference between the Democrats and Republicans in how they will vote because poll may not have embraced enough amount of people for the results to be correct.

Regardless of what everyone is saying we can’t deny that fact that this year Democrats look like they will vote more by email than the republicans and this is a phenomenon because usually it’s the opposite. So maybe the Democrats will gain more votes in untraditional ways because of the email voting and this can be good news for them. And if the do it before the election day it can still be a good sign. Another thing is if there are a lots of coronavirus cases by the time of the voting day, the Republicans may be disappointed because of the unwillingness of their voters to vote because of safety issues and in that case they already passed the chance to vote online. So it’s possible this voting thing end up with no such differences in the outcome, because Democrats may be shifting their usual in-person voters for new mail voters. There is also another scenario where the Republicans are being helped. So no matter who will get more benefits of voting by email it is sure that the battle is pretty disputed so the results may be surprising.